The domino theory was a Cold War policy that suggested a communist government in one nation would quickly lead to communist takeovers in neighboring states, each falling like a perfectly aligned row of dominos. In Southeast Asia, the U.S. government used the domino theory to justify its involvement in the Vietnam War. WHAT IS THE DOMINO THEORY? By 1950, U.S. foreign policymakers had accepted the idea that the fall of Indochina to communism would lead rapidly to the collapse of other nations in Southeast Asia. During the decisive battle between Viet Minh and French forces at Dien Bien Phu in 1954, President Dwight D. Eisenhower called it the “falling domino” principle. In Eisenhower’s view, the loss of Vietnam to communist control would lead to similar communist victories in neighboring countries in Southeast Asia (including Laos, Cambodia and Thailand) and elsewhere (India, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and even Australia and New Zealand). The term “domino theory” began to be used to express the strategic importance of South Vietnam to the United States, as well as the need to contain the spread of communism throughout the world. NATIONS ARE NOT DOMINOES The domino theory is no longer accepted. It failed to take into account the character of the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong struggle in the Vietnam War. By assuming Ho Chi Minh was a pawn of the communist giants Russia and China, American policymakers failed to see that the goal of Ho and his supporters was Vietnamese independence, not the spread of communism. The American effort to block a communist takeover failed, and North Vietnamese forces marched into Saigon in 1975. Yet communism did not spread throughout the rest of Southeast Asia. Only Laos and Cambodia came under communist control. Source: Domino Theory
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Historians often casually refer to the “discredited” Domino Theory. For example, the History Channel website tells us:
But how much did historical fact actually “discredit” the Domino Theory? The obvious hurdle is the vagueness of the theory. Here’s Eisenhower’s original 1954 statement about Indochina:
The word “certainty” in the second sentence sounds strong, but the third sentence is weak tea indeed. “You could have the beginning of a disintegration” could mean… almost anything. Typical non-falsifiable political poetry. What, though, would a numerate adherent of the Domino Theory have said in 1954? Presumably he wouldn’t have huffed, “I’m only right if Vietnam goes Communist, then every other country in Asia goes Communist within a year.” Instead, he would name a lower number and a longer time frame. Probably something like 3-5 south-east Asian countries going Communist within 5-10 years. So what actually happened? Since Eisenhower was speaking just before the Geneva Accords split Vietnam in two, it would be fair to say that the rise of Communism in North Vietnam did indeed bring three more countries under Communist control: South Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. It took a little over two decades, but once South Vietnam fell, the other two crumbled the same year. Hardly a decisive confirmation for a testable version of the Domino Theory, but far from a crushing disconfirmation either. On reflection, though, this analysis treats the Domino Theory unfairly. Key point: If people in power correctly believe that the Domino Theory is true, the theory’s predictions become self-reversing. Why? Because leaders who believe the Domino Theory will struggle mightily to stop dominoes from falling – and reinforce dominoes in danger! Picture an alternate history where American Domino Theorists successfully contain North Vietnam. Zero neighboring countries go Communist in the next decade. Critics would probably claim that the non-spread of Communism “discredits” the Domino Theory. Domino Theorists could however fairly object, “Our leaders listened to us – and got the result we predicted if you listened to us.” History definitely presents better examples of the Domino Theory at work that south-east Asian Communism. Once the world saw that the Soviet Union was unlikely to militarily intervene, Communism crumbled in every Communist state in eastern Europe in less than a year (except, of course, for the USSR itself). Now that’s a Domino Effect! My claim is not that the Cold War Domino Theorists were clearly right, but simply that they were far from clearly wrong. This is a classic case of, “If you’re not confused, you don’t understand what’s going on.”
The domino theory was a Cold War era belief popular within the United States from the 1950's until the end of the Cold War. The Cold War was a major world event that took place from approximately 1945 until 1990. In general, the Cold War was a period of increased tensions and hostility between the superpowers of the United States and the Soviet Union (USSR). Based on the Truman Doctrine and American containment, the theory held the idea that if Soviet communism was able to spread into a single country, then it had the potential to spread to all of the other surrounding countries. The basic idea was that the American's needed to prevent the first domino from falling (country turning to communism) in order to prevent the spread of communism. American containment was based on stopping communism any place it spread to, and as such, the domino theory helped explain the perceived need for the United States' involvement in international issues.
For example, the domino theory was used to justify American involvement in both the Korean War and Vietnam War from the 1950's to the 1970's. Both countries are in the South Pacific and both saw Soviet-style communism spread into their political systems. The Korean War first occurred in the 1950's and saw the country divide between a communist north and democratic south. The United States eventually became involved in the conflict, supporting South Korea on the basis of the domino theory, fearing that Korean communism would spread throughout the rest of the South Pacific. American involvement in Vietnam in the 1960's and 1970's was very similar to the earlier Korean War, as the country divided between a communist north and democratic south. Again, the United States became involved fearing that a communist Vietnam would help spread communism throughout the rest of the South Pacific. In the end, the domino theory was important because it explained American foreign policy at the time and saw the United States become involved in two major wars. As well, both wars saw the United States struggle and cost the lives of thousands of American soldiers.
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