The U.S. population will be considerably older and more racially and ethnically diverse by 2060, according to projections released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. These projections of the nation’s population by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, which cover the 2012-2060 period, are the first set of population projections based on the 2010 Census. “The next half century marks key points in continuing trends — the U.S. will become a plurality nation, where the non-Hispanic white population remains the largest single group, but no group is in the majority,” said Acting Director Thomas L. Mesenbourg. Furthermore, the population is projected to grow much more slowly over the next several decades, compared with the last set of projections released in 2008 and 2009. That is because the projected levels of births and net international migration are lower in the projections released today, reflecting more recent trends in fertility and international migration. According to the projections, the population age 65 and older is expected to more than double between 2012 and 2060, from 43.1 million to 92.0 million. The older population would represent just over one in five U.S. residents by the end of the period, up from one in seven today. The increase in the number of the “oldest old” would be even more dramatic — those 85 and older are projected to more than triple from 5.9 million to 18.2 million, reaching 4.3 percent of the total population.  A More Diverse NationMeanwhile, the Hispanic population would more than double, from 53.3 million in 2012 to 128.8 million in 2060. Consequently, by the end of the period, nearly one in three U.S. residents would be Hispanic, up from about one in six today. The black population is expected to increase from 41.2 million to 61.8 million over the same period. Its share of the total population would rise slightly, from 13.1 percent in 2012 to 14.7 percent in 2060. The Asian population is projected to more than double, from 15.9 million in 2012 to 34.4 million in 2060, with its share of nation's total population climbing from 5.1 percent to 8.2 percent in the same period. Among the remaining race groups, American Indians and Alaska Natives would increase by more than half from now to 2060, from 3.9 million to 6.3 million, with their share of the total population edging up from 1.2 percent to 1.5 percent. The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population is expected to nearly double, from 706,000 to 1.4 million. The number of people who identify themselves as being of two or more races is projected to more than triple, from 7.5 million to 26.7 million over the same period. The U.S. is projected to become a majority-minority nation for the first time in 2043. While the non-Hispanic white population will remain the largest single group, no group will make up a majority. All in all, minorities, now 37 percent of the U.S. population, are projected to comprise 57 percent of the population in 2060. (Minorities consist of all but the single-race, non-Hispanic white population.) The total minority population would more than double, from 116.2 million to 241.3 million over the period. Projections show the older population would continue to be predominately non-Hispanic white, while younger ages are increasingly minority. Of those age 65 and older in 2060, 56.0 percent are expected to be non-Hispanic white, 21.2 percent Hispanic and 12.5 percent non-Hispanic black. In contrast, while 52.7 percent of those younger than 18 were non-Hispanic white in 2012, that number would drop to 32.9 percent by 2060. Hispanics are projected to make up 38.0 percent of this group in 2060, up from 23.9 percent in 2012. Other highlights:
Supplemental population projections, based on constant, low and high projections of net international migration, are planned for release in 2013. Blog: -X-
Unless otherwise specified, the statistics refer to the population who reported a race alone. Censuses and surveys permit respondents to select more than one race; consequently people may be one race or a combination of races. The detailed tables show statistics for the resident population by “race alone” and “race alone or in combination.” The federal government treats Hispanic origin and race as separate and distinct concepts. In surveys and censuses, separate questions are asked on Hispanic origin and race. The question on Hispanic origin asks respondents if they are of Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin. Starting with the 2000 Census, the question on race asked respondents to report the race or races they consider themselves to be. Hispanics may be of any race. Responses of “Some Other Race” from the 2010 Census were modified for these projections. This results in differences between the population for specific race categories in these projections versus those in the original 2010 Census data.
Who is the U.S. workforce? The civilian, non-institutionalized workforce; that is the population of those aged 16 and older, who are employed has steadily declined since it reached its peak in the late 1990s, when 67% of the civilian workforce population was employed. In 2012 the rate had dropped to 64% and by 2022 it is projected to decline to 62%. The U.S. population is expected to grow more slowly based on census projections for the next few years. Those new entrants to the labor force, adults age 16 to 24, are the only population of adults that will shrink in size over the next few years by nearly half a percent, while those age 55 and up will grow by 2.3% over current rates, and those age 65 to 74 will grow by nearly 4% (Monthly Labor Review (MLR), 2013). In 1992, 26% of the population was 55+, by 2022 it is projected to be 38%. Table 8.8 shows the rates of employment by age. In 2002, baby boomers were between the ages of 38 to 56, the prime employment group. In 2012, the youngest baby boomers were 48 and the oldest had just retired (age 66). These changes might explain some of the steady decline in work participation as this large population cohort ages out of the workforce. In 2012, 53% of the workforce was male. For both genders and for most age groups the rate of participation in the labor force has declined from 2002 to 2012, and it is projected to decline further by 2022. The exception is among the older middle-age groups (the baby boomers), and especially for women 55 and older. Table 8.8 Percentage of the non-institutionalized civilian workforce employed by gender & age.
*Projected rates of employment (adapted from Monthly Labor Review, 2013). Hispanic males have the highest rate of participation in the labor force. In 2012, 76% of Hispanic males, compared with 71% of White, 72% of Asian, and 64% of Black men ages 16 or older were employed. Among women, Black women were more likely to be participating in the workforce (58%) compared with almost 57% of Hispanic and Asian, and 55% of White females. The rates for all racial and ethnic groups are expected to decline by 2022 (MLR, 2013). Climate in the Workplace for Middle-aged Adults: A number of studies have found that job satisfaction tends to peak in middle adulthood (Besen, Matz-Costa, Brown, Smyer, & Pitt- Catsouphers, 2013; Easterlin, 2006). This satisfaction stems from not only higher wages, but often greater involvement in decisions that affect the workplace as they move from worker to supervisor or manager. Job satisfaction is also influenced by being able to do the job well, and after years of experience at a job many people are more effective and productive. Another reason for this peak in job satisfaction is that at midlife many adults lower their expectations and goals (Tangri, Thomas, & Mednick, 2003). Middle-aged employees may realize they have reached the highest they are likely to in their career. This satisfaction at work translates into lower absenteeism, greater productivity, and less job hopping in comparison to younger adults (Easterlin, 2006). However, not all middle-aged adults are happy in the work place. Women may find themselves up against the glass ceiling, organizational discrimination in the workplace that limits the career advancement of women. This may explain why females employed at large corporations are twice as likely to quit their jobs as are men (Barreto, Ryan, & Schmitt, 2009). Another problem older workers may encounter is job burnout, becoming disillusioned and frustrated at work. American workers may experience more burnout than do workers in many other developed nations, because most developed nations guarantee by law a set number of paid vacation days (International Labour Organization, ILO, 2011), the United States does not (U.S. Department of Labor, 2016). Figure 8.19 Average Annual Hours Actually Worked per Worker Not all employees are covered under overtime pay laws (U.S. Department of Labor, 2016). This is important when you considered that the 40-hour work week is a myth for most Americans. Only 4 in 10 U.S. workers work the typical 40-hour work week. The average work week for many is almost a full day longer (47 hours), with 39% working 50 or more hours per week (Saad, 2014). In comparision to workers in many other developed nations, American workers work more hours per year (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD, 2016). As can be seen in Figure 8.19, Americans work more hours than most European nations, especially western and northern Europe, although they work less hours than workers in other nations, especially Mexico. Challenges in the Workplace for Middle- aged Adults: In recent years middle aged adults have been challenged by economic downturns, starting in 2001, and again in 2008. Fifty-five percent of adults reported some problems in the workplace, such as fewer hours, pay-cuts, having to switch to part-time, etc., during the most recent economic recession (see Figure 8.20, Pew Research Center, 2010a). While young adults took the biggest hit in terms of levels of unemployment, middle-aged adults also saw their overall financial resources suffer as their retirement nest eggs disappeared and house values shrank, while foreclosures increased (Pew Research Center, 2010b). Figure 8.20 Not surprisingly this age group reported that the recession hit them worse than did other age groups, especially those age 50-64. Middle aged adults who find themselves unemployed are likely to remain unemployed longer than those in early adulthood (U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2012). In the eyes of employers, it may be more cost effective to hire a young adult, despite their limited experience, as they would be starting out at lower levels of the pay scale. In addition, hiring someone who is 25 and has many years of work ahead of them versus someone who is 55 and will likely retire in 10 years may also be part of the decision to hire a younger worker (Lachman, 2004). American workers are also competing with global markets and changes in technology. Those who are able to keep up with all these changes, or are willing to uproot and move around the country or even the world have a better chance of finding work. The decision to move may be easier for people who are younger and have fewer obligations to others. |
Between 2012 and 2022 what ethnic group is projected to decrease as a percentage of the workforce?
zusammenhängende Posts
Urheberrechte © © 2024 wiewird Inc.
